Here we go again…. I missed you Nate Silver, Nate Cohn, Steve Kornacki, Dave Wasserman and Decision Desk HQ (my go-to results site).
I view special elections in Georgia with a healthy degree of skepticism- especially ones featuring Jon Ossoff. The unique/bizarre Georgia system of runoffs traditionally does not benefit Democrats, especially when the Dems have just won the White House. Older, whiter, more Republican voters have had a higher propensity to turnout and that results in dashed expectations similar to how Dallas Cowboys fans inevitably feel after the last game of the season where they had a chance to win the putrid NFC East (still a bit fresh).
Georgia seemed less likely to tip than other states in the Presidential election- behind Florida, North Carolina, Texas and maybe Ohio. The fact that it did turn blue in November is a testament to the changing demographics and the amazing job by Stacey Abrams and all the other people and organizations on the ground. It is also a reminder that gobs of money in an election year doesn’t mean you can build the infrastructure needed to win (see the Senate races in Kentucky, South Carolina, and Maine). Early and sustained investments are needed to do this type of work.
Now the polls currently show….kidding, nobody is looking at the polls for the Georgia runoff. Both races will be close and we might not know tomorrow night who has won. It would not be a shock to see a split- in which case the wooing of Romney, Murkowski and Collins goes in to an even higher gear to see if one of them will switch to the Dems. And if I had to predict a split winner it would be Warnock….so I have just guaranteed that Ossoff would be the winner.
There is no telling what impact Trump’s shakedown of the Republican Secretary of State will have- perhaps voters are charmed by his callous determination to undermine elections. As a side note, Gabriel Sterling (Georgia voting systems manager) and his sign language interpreters are absolutely on point in their evisceration of Trump’s claims.
A Democratic sweep means that Kamala Harris is casting the deciding vote in the Senate and that has huge implications for the Biden legislative agenda. I do relish the thought of Mitch McConnell losing his role as Majority Leader- seldom has one man, elected by so few, done so much to hurt America.
Let’s go Georgia- bring it home!