No time like Election Day to dust off the blog and come out with some thoughts. Going into the day, Kamala is in a strong position to win. Polls were capturing movement towards Trump the last few weeks, but that has been reversed in the closing week.

Right leaning pollsters churned out polls in an effort to keep the appearance of momentum for Trump by inflating the averages.

Trump looked exhausted and weary at the end of the campaign. His crowds were smaller, with empty seats and even more people leaving while he spoke.

Yes, polls underestimated Trump in 2016 and 2020. But in 2024, do we really think there are any “shy” Trump voters? Post 2020, it is the Dems that have been consistently outperforming polls.

The Selzer poll in Iowa predicted Trump’s over-peformance in the prior two cycles. Although Kamala might not win Iowa, much less by 3 points as shown in the poll, even a closer race in Iowa is a disaster for Trump when it relates to Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

The reason Trump supporters are so freaked out by the ad below is that it plays into a nightmare scenario: women voting without influence from their husbands and blowing the gender gap even wider.

Selzer’s poll showed what that would look like- and that would mean Kamala wins and it isn’t even that close.